Samuel Evans on LinkedIn: Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants (2024)

🇬🇧 - Wind power generation surpasses gas for two consecutive quarters, for the first timeWind has been the UK's primary source of electricity for the past two consecutive quarters (Q4 2023 and Q1 2024), marking the longest stretch on record that renewables have surpassed fossil fuels in UK electricity generation. 💨It accounted for an average of 39.4% of total electricity during the first quarter of 2024, compared to 36.2% from fossil fuels. Wind output also exceeded fossil fuel-powered output during the final quarter of 2023. In 2024, there have been 75 half-hour periods where fossil fuels contributed less than 5% to electricity demand, compared to 16 in 2023, and only 5 in 2022. 📈An impressive feat for the UK, especially for winter months!

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🇪🇺 - Day Ahead power prices fall to -€55/Mwh throughout Europe The lowest prices of -€55.01/MWh will occur between 14:00 - 15:00 UK time tomorrow (Saturday 13th April). Average wind power output in Germany at that time is forecast to exceed 26 GW, or 11 GW above normal (Montel). France will have the lowest average price in Europe tomorrow at €1.42/MWh, with eight hours turning negative,making it a net exporter to Germany and other European markets.Is this the new norm for spring/summer weekends? ☀️

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Easter Sunday sees extremely low day-ahead price of -€31 MWh The Austrian day-ahead price reached lows of -€31.39/Mwh on Easter Sunday, between 10:00 – 11:00 am. Throughout Europe in 2024, this falls second only to the -€39.79 day-ahead price seen in the Netherlands just over 3 weeks ago (Sunday 9th March). 🇦🇹 During the day time, wind and solar contributed to the majority of generation and even exceeded the low levels of demand at around mid-day. Demand levels fell as low as 4.9 GW just after noon. 💨 This led to significant downward balancing activation's, with MFRR down almost reaching 1 GW, with no help from its neighbours, as there was no capacity left. There was very minimal activity on the intraday auction until around 16:00 when solar fell. 📉

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Power and gas trading overtakes oil as the primary profit driver in the commodities sector (Financial Times). The industry has amassed up to $120 billion in cash reserves, fuelled by record growth over the past five years and heightened energy prices due to the Ukraine conflict. Independent traders - a group including privately held Vitol, Trafigura, Gunvor, and Mercuria, have seen 'five years, back to back, of the best year ever' regarding profits. Link to the full article is in the comments section below. 📈

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Day-ahead prices for today in Spain, Portugal and IT5 (Sardinia) see volatility, ranging from €0/Mwh to €130/Mwh throughout the day. IT5 prices= blue line, ES & PT= orange line. This correlates with the variation in wind generation forecasted, as shown below. 📈Spain has also faced a high number of unplanned outages including ASCO 1 nuclear plant and multiple hydro and gas plants within the past 48 hours, potentially somewhat contributing to the volatility. Air temperatures have fell slightly towards the back end of February, after a mild month particularly in Spain, seeing increasing demand as a result. 🇪🇸Energy Quantified forecasts suggest that Spanish volatility on the day-ahead will settle by Thursday and will range between €0/Mwh to €50-60 for the rest of the week, with the latter figures to be seen at evening peaks.📉

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🇪🇸/🇵🇹 - In the past 7 days, day-ahead power prices in Spain and Portugal have fell below €10/MWh consistently, occasionally hitting €0 but avoiding negative prices. Both regions spot price couples over 95% of the time, and only decouple when interconnectors are full between the two countries.Why are prices so low at this time of year?- Record low power demand for February in Spain, dating back to 2015- Spain's warmest January on record, extending into February (Reuters)- Low gas prices - High Spanish wind power generation, peaking at 19.5 GW and consistently at 13-17 GW recently. Portuguese wind has followed suit, reaching highs of 4.5 GW this week.Forward prices continue to reach multi-year lows in Spain, but spot prices are set to rebound slightly, with increasing demand due to falling temperatures and a reduction in wind generation starting on Thursday. Energy Quantified are predicting an average day ahead price of €28.26/MWh this week. ⚡️The dashboard below was put together using the EnAppSys - Energy Insight platform.

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It was great to experience the buzz of in Essen 🇩🇪 for the first time, last week.Thanks to everyone who stopped by for a chat at the Montel Group | EnAppSys - Energy Insight stand. Really enjoyed the intriguing talks with familiar and new faces. ⚡️

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🇩🇪 - Yesterday at 16:00 CET, German wind generation broke record levels, reaching 53 GW of output. This record has been the result of increasingly high wind power generation in Germany since Friday. Such high wind, and relatively low demand levels for this time period, has seen Germany become a net exporter of power so far this year. This is contrary to last year, when Germany became a net importer of power for the first year since 2002. 💨 Such high levels of wind generation are not expected to continue. Average wind generation could plummet from 26 GW today to 10.6 GW tomorrow (Montel). Lower levels are expected to continue for the rest of the week and through to next week, too. 📉

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🇩🇪 - Germany set for €40 Billion deal for Gas-Fired Power PlantsGerman authorities are finalising a deal this week on a 40 billion euro plan for new gas-fired power plants, a key part of Germany's strategy to prevent power shortages amid the coal phase-out. This aims to unlock 24 GW from hydrogen and gas plants, addressing energy gaps in low wind and solar periods.

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A lot of market coupling this morning across mainland Europe, with lowest day-ahead prices seen in Portugal and Spain.Mild weather and high wind on the Portuguese coast has seen high exports through interconnectors, with hydro and wind production covering more than their domestic demand today in Portugal. 🇵🇹Many regions see coupling across Europe, with surging levels of power demand coming from areas of Scandinavia and the Baltics, due to extreme cold spells. Hence, the highest day-ahead prices can be seen across this area. 🥶An eye may need to be kept on European LNG storage levels which now sit at 47% total. We saw glimpses of extreme prices on the day-ahead at the start of January in Finland and the Baltics, but extreme prices across Europe have yet to be seen. 📈

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